A lens factory produces lenses. The probability of a lens breaking on the first drop is $\frac{1}{2}$. If it doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the second drop is $\frac{7}{10}$. If it still doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the third drop is $\frac{9}{10}$. We want to find the probability that the lens falls three times without breaking.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependent Events
2025/4/2

1. Problem Description

A lens factory produces lenses. The probability of a lens breaking on the first drop is 12\frac{1}{2}. If it doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the second drop is 710\frac{7}{10}. If it still doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the third drop is 910\frac{9}{10}. We want to find the probability that the lens falls three times without breaking.

2. Solution Steps

Let P(Bi)P(B_i) be the probability that the lens breaks on the ii-th drop, and P(NBi)P(NB_i) be the probability that the lens does not break on the ii-th drop. We are given:
P(B1)=12P(B_1) = \frac{1}{2}
P(B2NB1)=710P(B_2 | NB_1) = \frac{7}{10}
P(B3NB1NB2)=910P(B_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = \frac{9}{10}
We want to find the probability that the lens doesn't break on the first drop, the second drop, and the third drop. That is P(NB1NB2NB3)P(NB_1 \cap NB_2 \cap NB_3).
First, P(NB1)=1P(B1)=112=12P(NB_1) = 1 - P(B_1) = 1 - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2}.
Next, P(NB2NB1)=1P(B2NB1)=1710=310P(NB_2 | NB_1) = 1 - P(B_2 | NB_1) = 1 - \frac{7}{10} = \frac{3}{10}.
Then, P(NB1NB2)=P(NB2NB1)P(NB1)=31012=320P(NB_1 \cap NB_2) = P(NB_2 | NB_1) \cdot P(NB_1) = \frac{3}{10} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{3}{20}.
Finally, P(NB3NB1NB2)=1P(B3NB1NB2)=1910=110P(NB_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = 1 - P(B_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = 1 - \frac{9}{10} = \frac{1}{10}.
Then, P(NB1NB2NB3)=P(NB3NB1NB2)P(NB1NB2)=110320=3200P(NB_1 \cap NB_2 \cap NB_3) = P(NB_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) \cdot P(NB_1 \cap NB_2) = \frac{1}{10} \cdot \frac{3}{20} = \frac{3}{200}.

3. Final Answer

The probability that the lens falls three times without breaking is 3200\frac{3}{200}.

Related problems in "Probability and Statistics"

The problem provides a frequency distribution table of marks obtained by students. Part (a) requires...

ProbabilityConditional ProbabilityWithout ReplacementCombinations
2025/6/5

The problem is divided into two questions, question 10 and question 11. Question 10 is about the fre...

Frequency DistributionCumulative FrequencyOgivePercentileProbabilityConditional ProbabilityCombinations
2025/6/5

A number is selected at random from the integers 30 to 48 inclusive. We want to find the probability...

ProbabilityPrime NumbersDivisibility
2025/6/3

The problem describes a survey where 30 people answered about their favorite book genres. The result...

PercentagesData InterpretationPie ChartFractions
2025/6/1

The problem asks us to determine if there is a statistically significant difference in promotion rat...

Hypothesis TestingChi-Square TestContingency TableStatistical SignificanceIndependence
2025/6/1

We are given a contingency table showing the number of students from different majors (Psychology, B...

Chi-Square TestContingency TableStatistical InferenceHypothesis Testing
2025/6/1

The problem describes a scenario where a pizza company wants to determine if the number of different...

Chi-Square TestGoodness-of-Fit TestHypothesis TestingFrequency DistributionP-value
2025/6/1

The problem asks to test the significance of three chi-square tests given the sample size $N$, numbe...

Chi-square testStatistical SignificanceDegrees of FreedomEffect SizeCramer's VHypothesis Testing
2025/5/29

The problem asks us to compute the expected frequencies for the given contingency table. The conting...

Contingency TableExpected FrequenciesChi-squared Test
2025/5/29

The problem asks us to estimate the chi-square value when $n=23$ and $p=99$, given a table of chi-sq...

Chi-square distributionStatistical estimationInterpolation
2025/5/27