A lens factory produces lenses. The probability of a lens breaking on the first drop is $\frac{1}{2}$. If it doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the second drop is $\frac{7}{10}$. If it still doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the third drop is $\frac{9}{10}$. We want to find the probability that the lens falls three times without breaking.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependent Events
2025/4/2

1. Problem Description

A lens factory produces lenses. The probability of a lens breaking on the first drop is 12\frac{1}{2}. If it doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the second drop is 710\frac{7}{10}. If it still doesn't break, the probability of breaking on the third drop is 910\frac{9}{10}. We want to find the probability that the lens falls three times without breaking.

2. Solution Steps

Let P(Bi)P(B_i) be the probability that the lens breaks on the ii-th drop, and P(NBi)P(NB_i) be the probability that the lens does not break on the ii-th drop. We are given:
P(B1)=12P(B_1) = \frac{1}{2}
P(B2NB1)=710P(B_2 | NB_1) = \frac{7}{10}
P(B3NB1NB2)=910P(B_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = \frac{9}{10}
We want to find the probability that the lens doesn't break on the first drop, the second drop, and the third drop. That is P(NB1NB2NB3)P(NB_1 \cap NB_2 \cap NB_3).
First, P(NB1)=1P(B1)=112=12P(NB_1) = 1 - P(B_1) = 1 - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2}.
Next, P(NB2NB1)=1P(B2NB1)=1710=310P(NB_2 | NB_1) = 1 - P(B_2 | NB_1) = 1 - \frac{7}{10} = \frac{3}{10}.
Then, P(NB1NB2)=P(NB2NB1)P(NB1)=31012=320P(NB_1 \cap NB_2) = P(NB_2 | NB_1) \cdot P(NB_1) = \frac{3}{10} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{3}{20}.
Finally, P(NB3NB1NB2)=1P(B3NB1NB2)=1910=110P(NB_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = 1 - P(B_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) = 1 - \frac{9}{10} = \frac{1}{10}.
Then, P(NB1NB2NB3)=P(NB3NB1NB2)P(NB1NB2)=110320=3200P(NB_1 \cap NB_2 \cap NB_3) = P(NB_3 | NB_1 \cap NB_2) \cdot P(NB_1 \cap NB_2) = \frac{1}{10} \cdot \frac{3}{20} = \frac{3}{200}.

3. Final Answer

The probability that the lens falls three times without breaking is 3200\frac{3}{200}.

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