A bag contains $a$ white balls and $b$ red balls. $k$ individuals sequentially draw a ball from the bag. We want to calculate the probability that the $i$-th person ($i = 1, 2, ..., k$) draws a white ball under two conditions: (1) with replacement, and (2) without replacement.
Probability and StatisticsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityCombinatoricsSamplingWith ReplacementWithout Replacement
2025/3/12
1. Problem Description
A bag contains white balls and red balls. individuals sequentially draw a ball from the bag. We want to calculate the probability that the -th person () draws a white ball under two conditions: (1) with replacement, and (2) without replacement.
2. Solution Steps
(1) With Replacement:
When the balls are drawn with replacement, each draw is independent of the previous draws. The probability of drawing a white ball remains constant at each draw.
The total number of balls in the bag is .
The probability of drawing a white ball is the number of white balls divided by the total number of balls.
Since the balls are drawn with replacement, the probability of the -th person drawing a white ball is the same as the probability of the first person drawing a white ball.
(2) Without Replacement:
Let be the event that the -th person draws a white ball.
We want to find .
We can express as:
Here, denotes the event that the first person draws a white ball, and denotes the event that the first person draws a red ball.
We have and .
Consider the case where . Then
Now, let's consider the general case for the -th person. We will use induction.
The base case is trivial, .
Assume that .
Then .
This can be shown using conditional probability and considering all possible sequences of white and red balls drawn before the -th draw. However, there's a much simpler argument:
Consider all balls and label them .
There are ways to order them.
We want to find the probability that the -th ball is white.
There are choices for a white ball to be in the -th position.
For each of these choices, there are ways to arrange the other balls.
So there are ways to have a white ball in the -th position.
The probability of a white ball in the -th position is .
3. Final Answer
(1) With replacement:
(2) Without replacement: