A bag contains $a$ white balls and $b$ red balls. $k$ individuals sequentially draw a ball from the bag. We want to calculate the probability that the $i$-th person ($i = 1, 2, ..., k$) draws a white ball under two conditions: (1) with replacement, and (2) without replacement.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityCombinatoricsSamplingWith ReplacementWithout Replacement
2025/3/12

1. Problem Description

A bag contains aa white balls and bb red balls. kk individuals sequentially draw a ball from the bag. We want to calculate the probability that the ii-th person (i=1,2,...,ki = 1, 2, ..., k) draws a white ball under two conditions: (1) with replacement, and (2) without replacement.

2. Solution Steps

(1) With Replacement:
When the balls are drawn with replacement, each draw is independent of the previous draws. The probability of drawing a white ball remains constant at each draw.
The total number of balls in the bag is a+ba + b.
The probability of drawing a white ball is the number of white balls divided by the total number of balls.
P(white)=aa+bP(\text{white}) = \frac{a}{a + b}
Since the balls are drawn with replacement, the probability of the ii-th person drawing a white ball is the same as the probability of the first person drawing a white ball.
(2) Without Replacement:
Let WiW_i be the event that the ii-th person draws a white ball.
We want to find P(Wi)P(W_i).
We can express P(Wi)P(W_i) as:
P(Wi)=P(WiW1)P(W1)+P(WiR1)P(R1)P(W_i) = P(W_i | W_1)P(W_1) + P(W_i | R_1)P(R_1)
Here, W1W_1 denotes the event that the first person draws a white ball, and R1R_1 denotes the event that the first person draws a red ball.
We have P(W1)=aa+bP(W_1) = \frac{a}{a+b} and P(R1)=ba+bP(R_1) = \frac{b}{a+b}.
Consider the case where i=2i = 2. Then
P(W2)=P(W2W1)P(W1)+P(W2R1)P(R1)=a1a+b1aa+b+aa+b1ba+b=a(a1)+ab(a+b)(a+b1)=a(a1+b)(a+b)(a+b1)=a(a+b1)(a+b)(a+b1)=aa+bP(W_2) = P(W_2 | W_1)P(W_1) + P(W_2 | R_1)P(R_1) = \frac{a-1}{a+b-1}\frac{a}{a+b} + \frac{a}{a+b-1}\frac{b}{a+b} = \frac{a(a-1) + ab}{(a+b)(a+b-1)} = \frac{a(a-1+b)}{(a+b)(a+b-1)} = \frac{a(a+b-1)}{(a+b)(a+b-1)} = \frac{a}{a+b}
Now, let's consider the general case for the ii-th person. We will use induction.
The base case i=1i = 1 is trivial, P(W1)=aa+bP(W_1) = \frac{a}{a+b}.
Assume that P(Wi1)=aa+bP(W_{i-1}) = \frac{a}{a+b}.
Then P(Wi)=aa+bP(W_i) = \frac{a}{a+b}.
This can be shown using conditional probability and considering all possible sequences of white and red balls drawn before the ii-th draw. However, there's a much simpler argument:
Consider all (a+b)(a+b) balls and label them 1,2,,a+b1, 2, \dots, a+b.
There are (a+b)!(a+b)! ways to order them.
We want to find the probability that the ii-th ball is white.
There are aa choices for a white ball to be in the ii-th position.
For each of these choices, there are (a+b1)!(a+b-1)! ways to arrange the other balls.
So there are a(a+b1)!a(a+b-1)! ways to have a white ball in the ii-th position.
The probability of a white ball in the ii-th position is a(a+b1)!(a+b)!=aa+b\frac{a(a+b-1)!}{(a+b)!} = \frac{a}{a+b}.

3. Final Answer

(1) With replacement: aa+b\frac{a}{a+b}
(2) Without replacement: aa+b\frac{a}{a+b}

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