A person has 8 keys, only one of which opens a certain door. The person tries the keys at random, without replacement. We need to find the probability distribution of the number of keys required to open the door. Let $X$ be the number of keys needed to open the door.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityProbability DistributionDiscrete ProbabilityConditional Probability
2025/4/22

1. Problem Description

A person has 8 keys, only one of which opens a certain door. The person tries the keys at random, without replacement. We need to find the probability distribution of the number of keys required to open the door. Let XX be the number of keys needed to open the door.

2. Solution Steps

The random variable XX can take values from 1 to

8. The probability that the door opens on the first try is $P(X=1) = \frac{1}{8}$.

The probability that the door opens on the second try is P(X=2)=78×17=18P(X=2) = \frac{7}{8} \times \frac{1}{7} = \frac{1}{8}. This is because the first key must be incorrect (probability 78\frac{7}{8}), and then the second key must be the correct one out of the remaining 7 keys (probability 17\frac{1}{7}).
The probability that the door opens on the third try is P(X=3)=78×67×16=18P(X=3) = \frac{7}{8} \times \frac{6}{7} \times \frac{1}{6} = \frac{1}{8}.
In general, the probability that the door opens on the kk-th try, where 1k81 \le k \le 8, is
P(X=k)=78×67×56××8(k1)8(k2)×18(k1)=8k+18×18k+1=18P(X=k) = \frac{7}{8} \times \frac{6}{7} \times \frac{5}{6} \times \dots \times \frac{8-(k-1)}{8-(k-2)} \times \frac{1}{8-(k-1)} = \frac{8-k+1}{8} \times \frac{1}{8-k+1} = \frac{1}{8}.
Therefore, P(X=k)=18P(X=k) = \frac{1}{8} for k=1,2,...,8k=1, 2, ..., 8.
The probability distribution is:
P(X=1)=18P(X=1) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=2)=18P(X=2) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=3)=18P(X=3) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=4)=18P(X=4) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=5)=18P(X=5) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=6)=18P(X=6) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=7)=18P(X=7) = \frac{1}{8}
P(X=8)=18P(X=8) = \frac{1}{8}

3. Final Answer

The probability distribution of the number of keys needed to open the door is:
P(X=k)=18P(X=k) = \frac{1}{8} for k=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8k=1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

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