Two people, A and B, agree to meet at a location sometime within the interval $[0, T]$. The first person to arrive waits for the other person, but if the other person does not arrive within time $t$ (where $t < T$), the first person leaves. The arrival times of A and B are uniformly random and independent within the interval $[0, T]$. The problem asks for the probability that A and B successfully meet.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityJoint Probability DistributionUniform DistributionGeometric ProbabilityIntegration
2025/3/19

1. Problem Description

Two people, A and B, agree to meet at a location sometime within the interval [0,T][0, T]. The first person to arrive waits for the other person, but if the other person does not arrive within time tt (where t<Tt < T), the first person leaves. The arrival times of A and B are uniformly random and independent within the interval [0,T][0, T]. The problem asks for the probability that A and B successfully meet.

2. Solution Steps

Let XX be the arrival time of person A and YY be the arrival time of person B. Since the arrival times are uniformly distributed in the interval [0,T][0, T], the joint probability density function is given by:
f(x,y)=1T2f(x, y) = \frac{1}{T^2}, for 0xT0 \le x \le T and 0yT0 \le y \le T.
For A and B to meet successfully, the difference between their arrival times must be less than or equal to tt, i.e., XYt|X - Y| \le t. This condition can be rewritten as tXYt-t \le X - Y \le t, which means XtYX+tX - t \le Y \le X + t.
We need to find the probability P(XYt)P(|X - Y| \le t). This can be represented as a double integral over the region where the condition is satisfied. The region of interest is the square [0,T]×[0,T][0, T] \times [0, T] in the xyxy-plane, and we want to find the area where xtyx+tx - t \le y \le x + t. We compute the probability by integrating the joint density function over this region:
P(XYt)=xytf(x,y)dxdy=1T2xytdxdyP(|X - Y| \le t) = \iint_{|x - y| \le t} f(x, y) dx dy = \frac{1}{T^2} \iint_{|x - y| \le t} dx dy
The area of the region where xyt|x - y| \le t within the square [0,T]×[0,T][0, T] \times [0, T] can be found by calculating the area of the square and subtracting the area of the two triangles where xy>t|x - y| > t.
The area of the square is T2T^2. The two triangles are defined by y>x+ty > x + t and y<xty < x - t.
The triangle where y>x+ty > x + t has vertices (0,t),(0,T),(Tt,T)(0, t), (0, T), (T-t, T). The area of this triangle is 12(Tt)2\frac{1}{2}(T-t)^2.
The triangle where y<xty < x - t has vertices (t,0),(T,0),(T,Tt)(t, 0), (T, 0), (T, T-t). The area of this triangle is 12(Tt)2\frac{1}{2}(T-t)^2.
So, the area of the region where xyt|x - y| \le t is T2(Tt)2T^2 - (T-t)^2.
Therefore, the probability is:
P(XYt)=1T2[T2(Tt)2]=T2(T22Tt+t2)T2=2Ttt2T2=2tTt2T2P(|X - Y| \le t) = \frac{1}{T^2} [T^2 - (T-t)^2] = \frac{T^2 - (T^2 - 2Tt + t^2)}{T^2} = \frac{2Tt - t^2}{T^2} = \frac{2t}{T} - \frac{t^2}{T^2}
P(XYt)=1(Tt)2T2=1(1tT)2=1(12tT+t2T2)=2tTt2T2P(|X - Y| \le t) = 1 - \frac{(T-t)^2}{T^2} = 1 - (1 - \frac{t}{T})^2 = 1 - (1 - 2\frac{t}{T} + \frac{t^2}{T^2}) = \frac{2t}{T} - \frac{t^2}{T^2}

3. Final Answer

The probability that A and B successfully meet is 2tTt2T2\frac{2t}{T} - \frac{t^2}{T^2}.

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