The average lifetime of a light bulb is 6000 hours. We want to find the probability that the bulb will last for more than 3000 hours. The probability density function is given by $P(a \le X \le b) = \int_a^b \frac{1}{\mu} e^{-\frac{x}{\mu}} dx$, where $\mu$ is the average value.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityProbability Density FunctionExponential DistributionIntegration
2025/5/10

1. Problem Description

The average lifetime of a light bulb is 6000 hours. We want to find the probability that the bulb will last for more than 3000 hours. The probability density function is given by P(aXb)=ab1μexμdxP(a \le X \le b) = \int_a^b \frac{1}{\mu} e^{-\frac{x}{\mu}} dx, where μ\mu is the average value.

2. Solution Steps

We are given that the average lifetime of a light bulb is μ=6000\mu = 6000 hours. We want to find the probability that the bulb lasts more than 3000 hours. That is, we want to find P(X>3000)P(X > 3000). We can write this as P(3000X<)P(3000 \le X < \infty). Therefore, we have a=3000a = 3000 and b=b = \infty.
Using the given formula, we have:
P(X>3000)=300016000ex6000dxP(X > 3000) = \int_{3000}^{\infty} \frac{1}{6000} e^{-\frac{x}{6000}} dx
To evaluate this integral, we find the antiderivative of 16000ex6000\frac{1}{6000} e^{-\frac{x}{6000}}:
16000ex6000dx=ex6000+C\int \frac{1}{6000} e^{-\frac{x}{6000}} dx = -e^{-\frac{x}{6000}} + C
Now we evaluate the definite integral:
P(X>3000)=limb3000b16000ex6000dx=limb[ex6000]3000b=limb(eb6000(e30006000))P(X > 3000) = \lim_{b \to \infty} \int_{3000}^{b} \frac{1}{6000} e^{-\frac{x}{6000}} dx = \lim_{b \to \infty} \left[ -e^{-\frac{x}{6000}} \right]_{3000}^{b} = \lim_{b \to \infty} \left( -e^{-\frac{b}{6000}} - (-e^{-\frac{3000}{6000}}) \right)
P(X>3000)=limb(eb6000+e12)P(X > 3000) = \lim_{b \to \infty} \left( -e^{-\frac{b}{6000}} + e^{-\frac{1}{2}} \right)
Since limbeb6000=0\lim_{b \to \infty} e^{-\frac{b}{6000}} = 0, we have:
P(X>3000)=0+e12=e12=1e0.6065P(X > 3000) = 0 + e^{-\frac{1}{2}} = e^{-\frac{1}{2}} = \frac{1}{\sqrt{e}} \approx 0.6065

3. Final Answer

The probability that the bulb will last for more than 3000 hours is e1/20.6065e^{-1/2} \approx 0.6065.

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