We have a total of $N$ products, among which $D$ are defective. We randomly select $n$ products. We want to find the probability that exactly $k$ of the selected products are defective, where $k \le D$.

Probability and StatisticsProbabilityCombinationsHypergeometric Distribution
2025/3/12

1. Problem Description

We have a total of NN products, among which DD are defective. We randomly select nn products. We want to find the probability that exactly kk of the selected products are defective, where kDk \le D.

2. Solution Steps

This is a problem involving combinations. The total number of ways to choose nn products from NN is given by the combination formula:
C(N,n)=N!n!(Nn)!C(N, n) = \frac{N!}{n!(N-n)!}
We want to choose exactly kk defective products out of the DD defective products, which can be done in C(D,k)C(D, k) ways:
C(D,k)=D!k!(Dk)!C(D, k) = \frac{D!}{k!(D-k)!}
We also need to choose the remaining nkn - k non-defective products from the NDN - D non-defective products. This can be done in C(ND,nk)C(N-D, n-k) ways:
C(ND,nk)=(ND)!(nk)!(NDn+k)!C(N-D, n-k) = \frac{(N-D)!}{(n-k)!(N-D-n+k)!}
The number of ways to choose kk defective products and nkn - k non-defective products is the product of these two combinations:
C(D,k)C(ND,nk)=D!k!(Dk)!(ND)!(nk)!(NDn+k)!C(D, k) \cdot C(N-D, n-k) = \frac{D!}{k!(D-k)!} \cdot \frac{(N-D)!}{(n-k)!(N-D-n+k)!}
The probability of selecting exactly kk defective products is the ratio of the number of ways to choose kk defective and nkn-k non-defective products to the total number of ways to choose nn products:
P(exactly k defective)=C(D,k)C(ND,nk)C(N,n)=D!k!(Dk)!(ND)!(nk)!(NDn+k)!N!n!(Nn)!P(\text{exactly } k \text{ defective}) = \frac{C(D, k) \cdot C(N-D, n-k)}{C(N, n)} = \frac{\frac{D!}{k!(D-k)!} \cdot \frac{(N-D)!}{(n-k)!(N-D-n+k)!}}{\frac{N!}{n!(N-n)!}}

3. Final Answer

The probability that exactly kk of the selected nn products are defective is:
C(D,k)C(ND,nk)C(N,n)=D!k!(Dk)!(ND)!(nk)!(NDn+k)!N!n!(Nn)!\frac{C(D, k) \cdot C(N-D, n-k)}{C(N, n)} = \frac{\frac{D!}{k!(D-k)!} \cdot \frac{(N-D)!}{(n-k)!(N-D-n+k)!}}{\frac{N!}{n!(N-n)!}}

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