The problem provides dividend data for a company, SHELL, over the last four years: Year 1: $2.3$, Year 2: $2.6$, Year 3: $2.8$, Year 4: $3.1$. We are told that the Year 4 dividend ($3.1$) is the current dividend $D_0$ and that the dividends will grow at a constant rate. The required rate of return is given as $0.5$. We need to calculate the growth rate and the price of the stock.

Applied MathematicsFinancial ModelingStock ValuationDividend Discount ModelGrowth RateAveraging
2025/7/8

1. Problem Description

The problem provides dividend data for a company, SHELL, over the last four years: Year 1: 2.32.3, Year 2: 2.62.6, Year 3: 2.82.8, Year 4: 3.13.1. We are told that the Year 4 dividend (3.13.1) is the current dividend D0D_0 and that the dividends will grow at a constant rate. The required rate of return is given as 0.50.5. We need to calculate the growth rate and the price of the stock.

2. Solution Steps

First, we need to find the constant growth rate gg. We can do this by calculating the growth rates between each consecutive year and then averaging them.
* Growth rate between Year 1 and Year 2: g12=2.62.32.3=0.32.30.1304g_{12} = \frac{2.6 - 2.3}{2.3} = \frac{0.3}{2.3} \approx 0.1304
* Growth rate between Year 2 and Year 3: g23=2.82.62.6=0.22.60.0769g_{23} = \frac{2.8 - 2.6}{2.6} = \frac{0.2}{2.6} \approx 0.0769
* Growth rate between Year 3 and Year 4: g34=3.12.82.8=0.32.80.1071g_{34} = \frac{3.1 - 2.8}{2.8} = \frac{0.3}{2.8} \approx 0.1071
Average growth rate: g=0.1304+0.0769+0.107130.1048g = \frac{0.1304 + 0.0769 + 0.1071}{3} \approx 0.1048
Since the dividends are assumed to grow at a constant rate like in the previous period, the best estimate for the growth rate is to consider the trend. However, given the question, we can also compute the growth by taking the beginning dividend and the ending dividend for the four periods.
3.1=2.3(1+g)33.1 = 2.3*(1+g)^3, so (1+g)3=3.1/2.3=1.3478(1+g)^3 = 3.1/2.3 = 1.3478. So 1+g=(1.3478)1/3=1.10431+g = (1.3478)^{1/3} = 1.1043, so g=0.1043g=0.1043.
The dividend growth model states the price of a stock is:
P0=D1rgP_0 = \frac{D_1}{r - g}
where P0P_0 is the current stock price, D1D_1 is the expected dividend next year, rr is the required rate of return, and gg is the constant growth rate.
We are given D0=3.1D_0 = 3.1, so D1=D0(1+g)=3.1(1+0.1043)=3.11.10433.4233D_1 = D_0 * (1 + g) = 3.1 * (1 + 0.1043) = 3.1 * 1.1043 \approx 3.4233.
Also, r=0.5r = 0.5. Then, P0=3.42330.50.1043=3.42330.39578.64928.65P_0 = \frac{3.4233}{0.5 - 0.1043} = \frac{3.4233}{0.3957} \approx 8.6492 \approx 8.65

2. Final Answer

Growth rate: 0.1043
Stock price: 8.65

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